Current Planetary Positions

Democratic Party Politics

 

For some time, my research, based on the “numbers” that are out there–(and I will add it is also my own gut feeling) tells me the Democratic party is divided across an approximate 60-40 split between the moderate/centrists and the left leaning/progressives. I would put Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar in the first group and Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders in the second.

 

Looking at at the results from the Iowa Caucus–at 71% of the final report, we notice  the centrist group has collected about 54% of the vote and the progressives are at 44%. I’m guessing that by the time the complete tally is in, we should see something in the range of 55-45 centrist-progressive score.

 

I don’t think this means the progressives are gaining ground,  and that as the primaries continue they will start to outpace the centrists. Rather my sense is this only verifies the existence of a mathematical majority that favors the centrists, and that I would still expect the final tally of all states to be closer to 60-40 than to 50-50.

 

Following the math, my guess is the final nominee will come from the centrist side,  one of Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg. However, even though Michael Bloomberg didn’t compete in Iowa, he must still be considered as a viable candidate in the centrist group. He is too smart and especially too rich to be ignored,  and his big spending strategy is already paying dividends, so I’m betting he will also be competitive.

 

So from my vantage point it is between Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg and Klobuchar. Within this group, while I would love to see a woman president,  and I believe that it would be fantastically positive event for our country, I also think that in this election cycle it is unlikely to happen. To my mind, for the 2020 election, the three men in this group have the advantage.

 

 

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